Democracy

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After a hard-fought campaign, progressives all over the U.S. are asking the same questions: “What happened, and where do we go from here?” Harris received approximately 9 million fewer votes than Biden  in 2020, while Trump gained around 1 million. Even though we don’t yet have a full picture of the 2024 electorate, it’s clear that Trump saw increased turnout in all battleground states and improved his share in several key groups.  On November 7, Fenton joined with national public opinion and political strategy research firm Lake Research Partners to host a webinar discussing what happened in the 2024 U.S. elections, the critical takeaways for progressive organizations, and how they can engage voters in future elections successfully.

What Happened?

This was a change election, and Trump was the change candidate. Just as in 2016, Trump successfully positioned himself as the candidate who could bring that change. He won voters who cared most about change by a 3 to 1 margin. Even voters who said they hated both candidates were 50% more likely to cast their ballot for Trump. With only a hundred days to define herself as a candidate, Harris was unable to separate herself from the current administration fully, and she couldn’t convince voters that her vision was different from the status quo. 

“Seventy percent of the people thought the country was going in the wrong direction, and 67% thought the economy was bad,” said Celinda Lake, President of Lake Partners. “Of the people that voted most for change, Trump won them 74 to 24. There was just no comparison.“

Trump gained ground with men, white women, and voters who did not have a college education. Trump won a majority of white voters, with clear Republican majorities among non-college-educated white voters and a more even split among those with a college education. Among voters of color, Harris overwhelmingly won Black women and Latina voters but lost some ground compared to the previous election. Black men still supported Harris by a large majority, but a larger share went for Trump than in 2020.  

One of the dominant narratives in the wake of the election was based on the contention that Trump beat Harris among Latino men, a supposition that’s not fully supported by the data. But there was still a clear shift among those voters toward the Republican candidate. “Edison’s exit polling had Trump winning Latino men by 12 points, while Newark polls had Harris winning them by three points,” Voss said. “But both have Trump doing better with that group across his three elections.”

Voters supported progressive issues, even when they didn’t support progressive candidates. Despite the losses by Democratic candidates, progressives saw some big wins when it came to state and local ballot initiatives. Seven out of 10 initiatives focused on expanding abortion access passed. Paid leave passed everywhere it was on the ballot. The minimum wage was increased in two states, with votes on California’s measure still being counted.  “When the people had a chance,” Lake said, “they generally voted for progressive change.”

What Lessons Can We Learn?

Legacy media is no longer the answer. The Democrats largely stuck with their 2016 playbook, and it’s clear that approach no longer works. Podcasts reach, and their listeners tend to connect to them more deeply than they do with traditional media outlets. The Trump campaign zeroed in on podcasts, which reach more audiences, particularly young, disaffected men. The result was major exposure, with Trump’s interview on Joe Rogan’s podcast racking up nearly 40 million viewers in just three days. Outreach via legacy media celebrities, such as Oprah, Taylor Swift, and Bruce Springsteen, also failed to move the needle enough. Social media personalities, podcasters, Twitch streamers and other digital influencers carry greater trust, reach, and deliver more bank for the buck than traditional media stars, particularly with Gen Z audiences. “Podcasts have high levels of audience engagement and loyalty,” said Fenton Executive Vice President Daria Hall. “A recent Pew study said that about a third of podcast listeners have tried a lifestyle change because of a podcast they listen to.”

Progressives need to reevaluate their Latino outreach. Latino voters can play a decisive role in future elections. However, to succeed, progressive campaigns need to listen to Latino communities, understand their diversity, and engage in ongoing outreach. Many Latinos have stated that they are tired of only being reached out to during election years, and even then, their concerns are often ignored. Surveys showed that Latinos ranked economic issues, such as inflation and housing costs as their top concern in 2024, yet the Democrats’ leading message was about immigration. There are also considerable differences of opinion, values and priorities between Latinos of different ages, family backgrounds, educational backgrounds, economic statuses, etc. “Ethnicity is just the tip of the iceberg,” said Fenton President & CEO Valarie De La Garza. “Levels of acculturation, geography, lifestyle, media consumption, habits and other factors all have to be considered.”

Messages need to meet people where they are. Voters cast their ballots based on what they perceive about their reality. Trying to convince people that the economy was doing well where they were didn’t work. As a result, progressives lost support from people who benefitted the most from a Harris administration. The fact that people supported progressive policies but not progressive candidates suggests that they may not feel included in a progressive coalition and that the campaign messaging didn’t connect with their concerns, experiences or values, even when they agreed with the overall positions. “The only way that we can prevent this from happening again is to approach these conversations with radical empathy,” De La Garza said. “We need to listen and really understand where people are coming from.” 

What Steps Can We Take?

• Revisit key your audiences. How well do you know the concerns, needs and wants of your core audiences? Are you collecting data regularly? Have you done a listening tour?

• Review and refresh your organizational messages. Make sure your messages are clear, thoughtful and resonate with your audiences. Consider message testing to gauge their effectiveness. 

• Expand your media lists. Include outlets like podcasts and non-traditional progressive, moderate and conservative media.

• Explore new types of messengers. Embrace social media and other digital influencers. Look for other “real-life” voices you can engage, such as health care workers and teachers. 

• Build out your own long-form storytelling capacity. Podcast audiences take time and investment to develop, but they can lead to high levels of engagement and loyalty.

• Invest in advertising. Paid advertising can yield huge dividends, but you can’t wait until the next election to build out this capacity. Consider investing in ongoing digital advertising and influencer marketing campaigns.

• Be media ready. Make sure your spokespeople are media trained and know how to put your organization’s messages, talking points and tough questions to use.

• Update your crisis plan. Don’t wait until you have a crisis to plan for one. Work out different scenarios beforehand so you’re ready when the moment comes.
• Think through your coalition. With conservatives in control of all of the arms of government, progressive organizations will need to work together to protect our rights and our communities. Who is missing from your table? How can you build stronger alliances?

On November 7, we saw the myth of politically disengaged young people further disproved in the face of resounding results for progressive issues. Gen Z voters influenced the outcome of the Ohio referendum on a Constitutional right to abortion and helped flip the Virginia House of Delegates blue and hold the State Senate. 

This kind of turnout is all the more impressive considering it was in an “off-year,” putting parties and candidates on notice that young voters will be a force to reckon with in the 2024 elections. In fact, with the Gen Z voter cohort slated to advance by 52 million compared to older voters between Trump’s 2016 win and next year’s election, young voters could very much determine the results. 

At the same time, the political class’ difficulty in engaging this younger cohort of voters has been well-documented — presenting a key communications challenge for progressives going into next year. 

So how do we tap into the political power of Gen Zers to advance progressive priorities in 2024, especially as their support for President Biden wanes? That’s the question we at Fenton sought to answer when we kicked off our event series, The Unlit Match: Igniting the Power of the Gen Z Vote, last week — one year out from Election Day 2024.

Amanda Litman, co-founder of Run for Something, moderated the panel discussion featuring Gen Z leaders Victoria Hammett of Gen Z for Change; Assistant Minority Leader Rep. Kalan Haywood of the Wisconsin State Assembly; Jessica Siles of Voters of Tomorrow; and Emilyn Grace Lagger of Unite for Reproductive & Gender Equity. 

Panelists agreed that Gen Z voters are motivated more by issue than loyalty to party or candidates, and that the political establishment should not take their support for granted. “Gen Z is really changing what it means to be political…and Gen Z voters are a lot more educated than they’re getting credit for, especially when it comes to issue-based voting,” Lagger said.  

However, Hammett cautioned politicians against making blanket assumptions about Gen Z’s priorities: “Understand that we’re adults, we’ve got bills to pay. We pay taxes, we definitely care about a lot of issues that for some reason, older generations assume that we don’t.”

These Gen Z leaders emphasized that they prize and expect accountability from their government officials, and that politicians should remember to engage them while they’re in office and not just during campaigns. “Now is the time to listen, and make sure you have a campaign strategy that reflects what you’ve been hearing. Don’t assume you know what Gen Z wants – take the time to ask questions,” said Rep. Haywood. 

Examples of that accountability and engagement came from social media. Panelists appreciated Instagram and Facebook Live sessions by office-holders that translate seemingly arcane legislative proceedings into understandable and relevant language, while taking questions from participants. 

As older generations take to social media to communicate with Gen Zers, however, our panelists cautioned against forcing the latest meme, viral trend, or lingo into their content. Rather than coming across as awkward, inauthentic, and pandering, politicians and advocates should stick to what feels natural to them.  They also warned politicians against thinking of social media as the sole avenue to engage them — and encouraged in-person events and meetings to hear about issues important to this cohort.  

On the question of engaging young people in Joe Biden’s presidential run among a decidedly unenthusiastic Gen Z, Siles said, “Authenticity is going to make it or break it. Keep it authentic, keep it simple, and uplift what he’s already done to deliver on Gen Z priorities.”

As we enter the 2024 races, continue to follow Fenton’s series, The Unlit Match, for more programming focusing on how Gen Z is changing not just election results but how politicians and parties engage with young people. And of course, we’ll be sharing insights and developments from our work with numerous partners that are advancing progressive priorities at the ballot box and around the country. 

Check out the full event to learn more.

 

President Biden walked into last night’s State of the Union address facing a major communications challenge: persuading the majority of Americans who think he has accomplished “not very much” or “little or nothing” that he has — as his record shows — actually moved a lot of meaningful policies in his two years in office. 

Going too far the self-congratulatory route was not going to be well-received. Despite record-low unemployment, a very small share of voters describe the economy as “good” or “excellent,” or feel like they’re better off financially since he took office. 

And with Republicans in control of the House and Kevin McCarthy’s disapproving presence in the background, Biden clearly made the calculation that he needed to deploy a so-called “unity agenda” to appeal to the electorate’s “reasonable middle” with an eye to re-election. Here’s how we progressive communicators think President Biden fared.

A clear understanding that “the people at home” were his main audience. Biden clearly understood his address as a televised exercise and stayed laser-focused on addressing viewers directly, largely side-stepping lawmakers in attendance (with the exception of his masterful back-and-forth with Republicans). He physically leaned on the podium toward the camera, deployed his folksy personality and relatable stories, and repeatedly mentioned the “folks at home” for good measure. It felt far more genuine and casual than any address given in recent memory by his predecessors — and the voters invited as guests did not feel like pawns for cheap political points.

“Finish the job” as a positive take on the work that still needs to be done. President Biden’s first priority last night was changing the perception that he has not delivered for the American people. He couldn’t be too celebratory, but also couldn’t undersell his many accomplishments, either. “Finish the job” was a simple tagline that alluded to the real progress his administration has made without ignoring the real difficulties many voters face while they await *some* relief from policies that have only recently become law.

A surprisingly strong ad-libbing performance when countering Republicans. While Biden fumbled a few words here and there, he scored his best points when reacting to Republican heckling on the spot with both great deft and humor. There were reports of high-fives in the White House following the President’s back-and-forth with Republican lawmakers. We, too, loved seeing GOP members trip over themselves on Social Security and Medicare all while Kevin McCarthy clearly got annoyed at his own caucus for getting rowdy and giving Biden the perfect split-screen moment between the two parties.

What Didn’t

Reproductive rights and gun safety as an afterthought. Both issues got far less air time than they deserved, especially in light of very broad support for both abortion rights and common sense gun measures in blue and red states, and following the recent mass shootings in Half Moon Bay and Monterey Park. Glazing over the impact of abortion bans and crackdowns on contraceptives, along with the unchecked flowing of guns and weapons of war across the country, felt tonally off. Particularly when gun violence was mentioned, the tone felt far too celebratory and lacked both the seriousness and true urgency the issue warrants.

The reluctance to forcefully call out extremism. Those of us who worked to protect our elections and democracy against the scourge of election denialism last cycle were bracing ourselves for democracy and voting rights to go unmentioned. While the President did the right thing in calling out political violence and recognizing the attack on Paul Pelosi, he stopped short of naming the MAGA extremists responsible for peddling the very harmful rhetoric and lies at the root of the problem. This pattern of ignoring the root of the problem was noticeable across a range of “controversial” issues where we needed the president to call out these scourges on society and how we are going to fix them. 

A vague take on police reform that left neither side satisfied. When it came to police reform, everyone got a little something to clap about, but nothing substantive was named that will get us on a path to address unchecked police violence and reimagining public safety in this country. “Something good has to come out of this” just wasn’t good enough — and even if Congress is completely gridlocked on police reform, the president should have used his bully pulpit to both show he understands the stakes and give political cover for decision-makers across the country to push for a clear justice agenda.

Special mentions from SOTU night

• We especially enjoyed lawmakers’ use of pins to bring visibility to their priority issues. Special mention to the many Congress members who not only sported crayons to call out the need for child care, but did a superb job of promoting that call to action on social media.
  
• The nod to Vice President Kamala Harris, which was sorely needed in light of the torrent of negative press she has been facing just over the last few days. With that said, the president hasn’t done a particularly good job of elevating his VP over the last two years, so this may be too little too late.
• Final special mention to Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders for delivering one of the most unhinged SOTU responses in recent memory — marrying a forced accent with extreme rhetoric that painted the perfect picture of just how toxic the GOP brand has gotten.

Image credit: @taliaswlcek

André Ory is a Vice President at Fenton, where he serves as a political communications strategist for leading national and state advocacy groups, coalitions, and nonprofits in the progressive space. André has led successful media and integrated communications campaigns to protect the 2020 election and results from President Trump’s attacks, advance democracy reforms to make our government work for everyone, and promote the Green New Deal and meaningful climate action, among others.

For any questions about this blog or inquiries about working with Fenton, please contact info@fenton.com.

We’re just under 60 days away from the 2022 midterm elections and MAGA Republicans are working harder than ever to undermine voters’ ability to vote them out of office and tilt election results in their own favor.

More than half of Americans will have an election denier on the ballot this November, including people running for positions that oversee our elections — all while county officials are already refusing to certify election results. State legislatures have passed dozens of laws that not only make it harder to vote but also, would allow partisan legislators to interfere with how elections are run. Extreme politicians are openly embracing political violence and threats to both voters and officials who disagree with them.

This is no coincidence — these are the same politicians who are behind an all-out attack on our freedoms to choose to have an abortion, love whom we love, and live safe from gun violence and climate disasters. By taking away the right to vote, they’re working to cement a radical agenda and impose it on the majority of us.

That’s why free and fair elections matter, and it’s no hyperbole to say that if the MAGA movement wins this November, we could witness the beginning of the end of our democracy — and therefore the full-on dismantling of our rights.

So what can we do from a messaging and communications perspective to fight back?

• Avoid general language on “threats to democracy” and specifically call out MAGA Republicans. A recent NBC News poll showed “threats to democracy” topping the list of issues concerning voters, but we can’t forget that what voters see as the origin of the threat varies widely — and the right has its own powerful narrative about “socialist Democrats” being responsible.
• Calls for Americans to “vote” are insufficient if not inextricably linked to the very freedoms under attack. We know broad swaths of the Democratic base have been deflated by a year of setbacks for Biden and Democrats in Congress — and activists rightfully felt that calls to show up to the polls (something they’ve already done to usher in a Democratic trifecta) were missing the urgency of the moment. We must connect the right to vote to salient issues like abortion — and point out that all our freedoms start at the ballot box and free and fair elections.
• Paint as vivid a picture as possible of what a post-democracy America will look like. Attacks on the Affordable Care Act and the Dobbs decision have shown that voters will fight back when they are stripped of rights and benefits they had long enjoyed. And while it’s much harder to trigger such an emotional backlash before voters actually experience the loss of such rights, we still must give it our all and use everyday stories, simple but urgent language, and trusted community messengers to make such threats resonate now.

Fenton is deep in the trenches with both the defenders of voting rights and democracy and those who fight for abortion rights, gun safety, LGBTQIA equality, and climate action. Every day we help our clients articulate intersectional messages, foster partnerships between them, and reach voters in ways that demonstrably make a difference. 

We’re going all out this cycle and will fight alongside partners to ensure democracy — and our collective freedoms — prevail on November 8.

For more information and to get in contact with us on our voting rights and democracy related offerings head to https://fenton.com/elections-advocacy/.

Today, we convened a panel of progressive leaders to reflect on the recent SOTU, and how we can effectively build power and create change together. The panel included Cliff Albright, Executive Director, Black Voters Matter, Analilia Mejia, Co-Executive Director, Center for Popular Democracy, Jacob Garber, Senior Director, DSPolitical, Leah Greenberg, Co-Executive Director, Indivisible,  Jessie Ulibarri, Co-Executive Director, SiX Action, and was moderated by HuffPost National Politics Reporter Travis Waldron.

 

Watch the full panel here:

A Progressive State of the Union (2022 Panel) from Fenton Vimeo on Vimeo.